The 24th February 2023 marks the anniversary of what has been described by Germany´ s Chancellor Olaf Scholz as ”Zeitenwende”. Political slogans are often simple, exaggerated and seldom contain material for serious analysis. Not so with ”Zeitenwende,” a word closely related to Bob Dylan´ s song title ”The Times They Are a-Changing;” although unlike Dylan´ s gentle reminder of a generation in waiting and expectations for the future, ”Zeitenwende” has us looking to the past. Like the sharpest of knives slicing through the softest of flesh, this word pregnant with memories of recent European history and our determined efforts to avoid a reprise, has left us in agony. The coming year will see a thousand and one more anniversaries of events that have turned our world upside down. ”Zeitenwende” encapsulates them all whether they be in the realm of politics, the military or human suffering.
In the realm of politics:
The ugly return of Fascism with imperialist lipstick claiming to protect speakers of Russian by incorporating them into the Russian Federation. Swap Sudetenland 1938 for Crimea 2014.
The invasion of a neighbouring country in order to create a military buffer zone and in the process eliminate any democratic influence. Swap Poland 1939 for Ukraine 2022.
Russia´ s faster than ever decline into dictatorship where censorship inhibits freedom of speech and political opposition with those not complying, shown not the door but the window. Hair-raisingly enough this is not the sole reason for the lack of resistance to Putin´´ s ”Special Military Operation” There are still people in Russia who support the war, whatever the label. The excuse often heard is that people believe the propaganda depicting Russia as the victim. It´ s a sorry excuse at best, where the events of the past year have brought about a better understanding that the problem runs deeper than Putin and his cabal.
Security treaties and international agreements intended to prevent war in Europe have been virtually incinerated by Russia, leaving only the most naive or cynical professing peace in the belief that there is a future in trusting Putin. But where to from here? It took awhile but it now looks as if the first part of that question is being answered with an ever increasing flow of war material to Ukraine. There is consensus in the decision to beat Russia but not in how much, with Macron at the fore of ”just enough” and the other perhaps more realistic view, from a Ukrainian point of view, ”to the point where they won´ t try this sort of crap again.”
Russia is in flagrant breach of the UN charter thus humiliating an organisation that requires voting consensus in its security council. In other words it would require Russia as a member of that same council to vote in favour of its own exclusion if it is to be excluded. You couldn´ t make it up!
This was the day the alarm clock not only rang but went crashing to the floor brutally reminding Europeans of democracy´ s fragility and the need for closer EU co-operation as well as NATO´ s vital role in the face of revanchistic imperialism.
”Zeitenwende” has also offered us a political litmus test with the strong, the weak, and the shifty, mercilessly pinpointed in the spotlight on the world stage. Political colour seems to have given way to backbone and personality. Indecisive Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson finally plucked up the courage and paved the way for Sweden´ s NATO membership application. Neutrality is said to be in Sweden´ s DNA leaving Putin with egg on his face and guaranteeing Andersson a place in history. Women are said to be less bellicose than men which I have no reason to doubt. All the more impressive is how female politicians have shown themselves steadfast in the face of Putin´ s aggression. From Sanna Marin in Finland to Annalena Baerbock in Germany not forgetting Kaja Kallas in Estonia.
The far right and far left in Germany holding hands in their opposition to the war not Putin leaves a foul taste in my mouth, not least with their disgusting so called manifestations for peace ignoring the suffering of Ukrainians at the hands of their oppressors. Ukrainians want to live in peace and in democracy and are prepared to die for that. Swap negotiations with Putin for negotiations with Hitler and things begin to fall into place.
In the realm of the military:
The military theatre in Ukraine is perhaps the biggest give away of all as to the kind of country we are dealing with. From a few weeks of success at the outset of the invasion to a botched attack on Kyiv the Russian army proved itself to be unfit for purpose. The great Russian bear had mould in its fur and rotten teeth. The army that the world feared was bested by Ukraine which showed better motivatation and leadership all the way from the top down. Democrat faces autocrat comes to mind; not quite that simple but indicative. The incompetence shown by Russia on the battlefield was compensated for by targeting civilians. The stories of survivors are horrendous with the events in Bucha serving as a showcase for this degenerate behavior. That Putin then expressed his gratitude by decorating the perpetrators of the slaughter in Bucha gives us an insight to the mindset of Russia today. Vladimir Putin is obviously not of this Century and his army reflects this in no uncertain terms. I have seen pictures of a bare-chested Putin posing with rifles and riding a horse. I´ m not sure if that impresses anybody although it most certainly reveals a few things about his character.
In the realm of human suffering:
There seems little point in repeating the long list of suffering caused by this war as most people, including those in Russia I dare say, are already informed of what is happening. Pictures and video clips flourish on the internet sometimes only minutes or even seconds after occurring, making this war and its suffering the most documented ever. War crimes have been abundant and according to legal experts this evil will in time see justice.
The future:
”Zeitenwende” is very clear about one thing, with people like Putin around you need a strong military deterrent. Although Scholz initially dithered in his follow up to this promise it would seem he has either changed his mind or is being dragged in the required direction by the chain of events; or could it be Annalena? Dependency on Russian mineral resources is now permanently off the cards and ”Wandel durch Handel,” (change through trade) also at least as far as Russia is concerned. Not that any of these things were priorities in most other EU countries. Perhaps the time has come for Germany to cast aside its sackcloth and ashes and realize it´s not the sword that is the problem, it´ s the way you swing it. On top of that a lesson or two on what true and thereby often successful leadership entails might not go amiss. As far as anything else is concerned the future is uncertain. Ukraine has made its goal crystal clear; Russians out and that includes Crimea. A stance supported by international law but so far has only hesitant support from the US and Europe. The outcome on the battlefield and the eventual consequences in Russia will not only define whether Ukraine achieves its goal but also define the future of Europe.
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