Exactly 4 weeks have passed since my last text and although there have been no significant changes on the political stage there has been a considerable amount of shuffling in the wings. Theresa May is still Prime Minister with her DUP crutch and Jeremy Corbyn is continuing to embrace Brexit whereby offering people a deal with the EU that, if anything, lends support to the argument that he doesn´t know what he is talking about.
The once strong and stable and very predictable play has become an unrehearsed farce and no-one dare guess what´s going to happen next or who´s got what part. The prompter is shouting down the leading lady and reading from a text that has little resemblance to the earlier agreed upon script. Tories and Labour are still publicly hugging and kissing on Brexit yet with increasingly obvious distaste, not only for each other but also for a political stance that threatens their claim to power.
There has though been significant change on the whole atmosphere of Brexit. From ”Brexit means Brexit” or hard Brexit with or without a deal to soft Brexit with a variety of flavours. ”Brexit will not happen,” has also been added as a no longer crazy option as has, ”if we leave the EU” rather than ”when.” Of course Theresa May´s botched election has opened up for this but also very much the fact that the penny has finally dropped, together with the pound, as people are beginning to understand not only the great harm Brexit will do directly affecting more people than previously expected but also that it will not solve the problems that people worry most about.
Different polls, even one in the Daily Express, reflect the changing mood showing a majority for Remain. This change of mood is as yet not forceful or prolonged enough to be publicly acknowledged by the Tories or Labour but it is making life extremely difficult for both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, be sure of that.
Should this continue, the road to Brexit and the entailing disasters will have been taken despite ”the will of the people,” referendum or no and the cost of doing that requires little imagination. From a Remainer´s point of view the icing on the cake is that Parliament lacks a majority to support Brexit, there are even talks of a cross party revolt, not to mention the House of Lords, granted new political clout by the Tories minority manifesto.
So who will end Theresa and Jeremy´s gridlock? For the time being Labour has a strong hand and every wish to raise the stakes but pretending to have a full house with only 2 aces might turn into quite a problem. As for Theresa May the decision is unlikely to be hers. She is damaged goods beyond repair. Brexit has been likened to a bus over a cliff. That bus is still heading for the cliff with a confused driver and a bus conductor trying to find a way to appease squabbling passengers many more now voicing concerns about their destination. Most people are becoming aware that driving over the Brexit cliff is not the sensible thing to do. For this reason I am convinced there will be no Brexit. In fact I am convinced there will be no shade of Brexit whatsoever as the varieties of a soft Brexit are just not worth the effort, please no-one and leave the UK as politically emasculated as a hard Brexit. So, what happens now? The ball is in the Tory court and requires some nifty footwork. The choices? 1. Continue plugging Brexit with or without May, risking a general election, a Labour majority and no Brexit. 2. Sack May, change tack, admit that the consequences of Brexit would be too damaging for the country at the same time supporting the theory that the election was lost due to hard line Brexit and electorate regrets and then hang on. 3. Same as 1. only in the unlikely event that Labours succeeds in implementing Brexit, wait for the crash and pick up the pieces.
Brexit was to be exploited by both Labour and Tory to meet their own ends. To everyone’s surprise it has turned around and bitten them on the political backside and threatens to devour one or both of them in the future depending on the outcome. Whatever the outcome, it is painfully obvious that the UK needs a new political force that has the interests of its people at heart rather than ideologies of socialist utopia or raw capitalism.