Neville Chamberlain` s famous words as he brandished a piece of white paper, the signatures on which he saw as a guarantee there would be no war with Germany.
The wording in the three short paragraphs of this agreement between Chamberlain and Hitler stressed the importance of Anglo-German relations and the desire never to go to war with one another again as well as stating a common resolve to use negotiation in all future disagreements.
We all know how that worked out and the ink on the paper had hardly dried before Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia and a year later, Poland. Unspeakable horrors and millions of dead and a Continent in ruins are the legacy on which both the EU and the independent European Court of Human Rights were founded. Europe was never to go to war with itself again. We had learnt our lesson.
Anyone might be excused for believing this even after the annexation of Crimea by Russia which, in a combination of relatively little blood-letting and contortional political thinking, allowed us the luxury of not believing what we were seeing.
On the 24th February 2022, Putin deprived us of even that luxury.
There are some frightening parallels with the events leading to the second world war. Hitler was right in assuming that a more or less welcoming Austria, as his troops marched in, would see no military response from Great Britain or France and he gambled on a similar response to a full-scale invasion of Czechoslovakia after having successfully negotiated the annexation of the Sudentenland. His invasion of Poland however, or at least as much as the Molotov/Ribbentrop pact specified, brought on a declaration of war from both Great Britain and France who by then must have accepted the harsh reality that peace by negotiation was no longer, if it ever had been, an option.
Ukraine has not lived up to Putin` s delusions of ”one People, one Russia, one Führer” nor has the country been cowed into surrender in the face of the unbelievable brutality meted out by Russia`s armed forces; a brutality defended as being less than ”squeaky clean” and rather more as a manifestation of Russian character by Russian foreign secretary Lavrov. My thoughts on that are, just as not all Germans were Nazis, not all Russians are mad dogs, something to be remembered as the war drags on.
Ukraine is paying a heavy price for its ferocious resistance to Putin, although faced with extinction as a nation, as a culture, as an identity, it should surprise no-one it is a price they are willing to pay. It may also slowly be sinking in for the rest of us, that if Ukraine loses this war there will be the inevitable follow up question, ”Whose next?” The alternative, in the form of a negotiated peace with Russia being allowed to keep any conquered Ukrainian territory, would justify a, ”When next, ” instead.
Even if Russia loses this war, with Ukraine retrieving its territories in Donbas and Crimea, Russia will not have lost anything more than it has already lost in the way of prestige and dead soldiers. The former being one of the main reasons for Putin`s war in the first place. The ”When next” will not go away irrespective of negotiated agreements whether jotted down on little pieces of white paper or steeped in international law. Expecting any form of decency, legal or otherwise after having witnessed Russian barbarity in Ukraine, is beyond naive.
Putin has not only overplayed his hand but exposed himself as the reprobate he is. The former rather than the latter will be the reason for his exit from the world stage. The botched special military operation in Ukraine has resulted in a stronger NATO with Sweden and Finland joining its ranks, turning the Baltic into a NATO lake. Russia has become politically and economically ostracised and labelled a terrorist state, whose depraved behaviour on the battlefield has been greater in targetting civilians than anyone else.
The path Putin has taken his country down is leading nowhere, least of all to anything that could be described as beneficial for Russia. No amount of propaganda will conceal that in the long run. Given this predicament the temptation for Putin to use nuclear weapons is as credible as it is frighteningly insane. Putin has shown himself to be a loser and the question is, if his power base is prepared to take anymore chances other than the final one, of removing him. Peace for our time depends very much on the answer.