Rick´s News

Just over 2 years ago I made a most memorable cruise from Buenos Aires to Los Angeles via amongst other places the Falkland Islands. All in all it was an enjoyable cruise but for two minor incidents that a little over a year later made me realize I had for the first time come face to face with supporters of two political forces that would come to change the lives of millions. At dinner one evening the subject turned to Trump and even though in my experience the American passenger contingent had their fair share of Republicans nobody seemed enthused by the idea of Trump becoming President. The conversation halted abruptly followed by an embarassed silence when a gentleman at the table exclaimed, ”I would vote for Trump.”  I shrugged it off thinking, ”no way that´s gonna happen.” 

Somewhat later on the cruise whilst sharing a table with an English couple the conversation turned to the upcoming referendum. The couple were struggling to give the impression that they were upper middle class after only a short while pointing out that they had gone to university and the woman loudly exclaiming she would never buy anything from Marks and Spencers saying it would be akin to wearing a uniform. As Marks & Sparks do a nice line in lingerie I sat there musing on how many people actually get to see her drawers. At first I was a little surprised when the husband came across as being in favour of the UK leaving the EU. A little later a distinct flavour of xenophobia intruded into the conversation and I began to understand. He was however of the opinion that although he intended to vote ”Leave” that it would not happen. I agreed with him on this suggesting that a ”Leave” vote could result in Scotland breaking away from the union. ”Let them go,” was his immediate response. I think the aghast look on my face must have shocked him a little as he began to stutter explanations. I have always felt it is important to be polite to people so for the remainder of the cruise I shunned them as politely as possible. Little did I realize that the American gentleman and the British couple were evil omens signalling the beginning of a disturbing journey nobody yet knows how it will end.

A lot of water under the bridge since then and we now have President Trump and Brexit yet notwithstanding with only 4 months to Christmas I think you can guess what I want from Santa. It is not inconcievable that Trump will be ousted as president and Brexit will eventually be abandoned yet when and how, before or after Christmas, is anybody´s guess. That is quite a turn around, so what happened?  As far as Trump is concerned I shall leave him to his fate and answer the question simply by saying that I believe him to be a despicable human being and people are finding that out.

In the case of Brexit much ado is made of the electorate consisting of large numbers of people who really have no clue about anything. This of course is unkind and also very untrue. Even the greatest lack of understanding or analysis of a political situation does not deprive anyone of the means to judge the qualities or lack thereof of their daily lives. In a democracy this has to be respected if a country is to call itself a democracy, with representative democracy and elections being the tools that make this work. The system may be slow and clumsy but well capable of punishing politicians or parties not living up to their promises on important issues.  Referendums play by different rules and as such should be treated with much greater respect than elections where people have a general understanding where to find their political benefactors. Leaving the EU was done on a blank sheet of paper and the electorate, knowledgable or not, was asked to fill in what it was it wanted, anything from a close association with the EU to leaving with no deal. The first step was leaving and whatever the outcome the sunny uplands would follow. The argument for ”Leave” has now shifted to a promise of a better life in maybe 10 to 50 years and in the short term a stagnant economy, isolation and less influence in the world. Project fear and Brexit may not be the end of the world as Theresa May now claims but for many Brits it is not the beginning of a new and better life either. People now realize they have been shafted and judging by the latest opinion polls the country is coming to its senses. Unfortunately referendums have no electoral escape hatch so now it is up to our politicians to come to their senses.

#PeoplesVote

For heaven´s sake what the hell is going on.  The entire UK seems to be in the middle of a nervous breakdown. Now I wouldn´t go as far as saying everybody has gone stark raving mad as there seem to be a large number of sane voices on Twitter telling me otherwise. Without a doubt though there is enough mad input from a great number of people, politicians not excepted, that makes for a very scary feeling. Tuning into the UK with serious talk of food and medicine stockpiling in the event of a “Hard Brexit“ as well as large sections of the community being labelled as traitors for expressing their views makes me feel I am in the middle of an Orwell or Huxley re-run. After having pinched myself a number of times to ensure the whole thing is not a nightmare which of course it is but not my own personal one, I feel somehow that this will end as nightmares do, by us all waking up.  Until then or latest in 4 weeks no more on Brexit from me.

Over the past 5 days I have been involved in a nightmare of a different kind which unlike Brexit is not self inflicted. For quite a while now the weather in Sweden has been dry and hot with weeks of sunshine and temperatures normally associated with holiday destinations in warmer climes. Mixed feelings of appreciation coupled to nagging concerns of global warming and the long term effects on peoples lives these extreme temperatures have led to some very frighteneing short term effects in the way of enormous forest fires. With the entire countryside in practically the whole of Sweden as dry as a tinderbox, a fire of the smallest kind easily becomes a monster spreading over thousands and thousands of acres of forest where the tree tops as well as the undergrowth are bone dry. As a member of an FRG group (Frivillig resurs grupp) under the auspices of the Swedish Civil Defence authority I recently spent 5 days in Färila and Ljusdal, the scene of Sweden´s largest ever forest fire.  The work assigned to our group consisted mainly of administering vast amounts of volunteered resources both people and material. Primarily this means listing offers of help via a telephone call, an e-mail or communicated via the Municipality of Ljusdal´s website. Organising a group of volunteers to set up a tent camp on the football field of Färila school, the headquarters of the co-ordinating team, was one of our very first assignments. Some of these tents were later occupied by a French contingent proudly hanging their “tricolore“ next to the blue flag with the yellow stars. I stopped to think for a minute. The pilots in that tent as well as the Polish, German, Danish, Finnish and Portugese firefighters may or may not have very much in common with the locals in the county of Hälsingland whose forest, properties and maybe even whose lives they are saving but they share the values that have made that flag the symbol of co-operation amongst the nations of Europe putting an end to fighting each other, instead working together for the sake of our common future.

• An enormous demonstration in London demanding a final say in the negotiated deal with the EU including an option to remain. 
• Theresa May embarrasses herself on the internet with a near to deranged appearance spouting new sound-bites.
• Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson says ”fuck business”
• Airbus and BMW leaving UK as a consequence of a no deal Brexit.
• Government criticises Airbus and BMW for revealing their plans?
• Scotland heading for a new independence referendum.
• Polls showing growing suppport for a united Ireland.
• House of Lords says what the House of Commons would like to say.
• Latest polls suggest the tide has turned in Remain´s favour.
• Jeremy Corbyn hiding in Jordan during #PeoplesVote march.
• Keir Starmer, Emily Thornberry et al. hiding somewhere else.
• Labour and anti-Brexit well represented by the young people OFOC, Our Future Our Choice
• Left wing Labour people say FBPE is full of Tories?
• Left wing Labour people say the #PeoplesVote is a Lib Democrat attack on Corbyn?
• Left wing Labour people say people who are openly anti-Brexit attack Corbyn?
• Left wing Labour people say unless you love Corbyn your political views are irrelevant.
• Tories are divided.
• Labour is divided.
• The country is divided.
• The Good Friday agreement needs the single market and the customs union.
• Ireland needs the Good Friday agreement.
• British business needs to know what the deal will be.
• Theresa May needs to know what the deal will be.
• Theresa May has sound-bites, red lines and little else.
• Unless #PeoplesVote is successful the House of Commons has a choice; any old deal or no deal.
• Some people think no deal means status quo. 
• Some people haven´t a clue, they just hate foreigners.
• Some people have a clue, also hate foreigners and are bonding with those that haven´t a clue.
• Jacob Reese-Mogg is funny; both meanings, makes you laugh and squirm.
• David Davis is busy taking somebody out. 
• Brexit for the many not the few decent Tories left.
• Tory government doesn´t know what it wants.
• Everybody´s forgotten Gibralter and the Falklands.
• People starting to prepare for a no deal Brexit.
• Remainers more confident there will not be a Brexit of any kind.
• The EU has several off-the-shelf offers which with or without adjustments are unacceptable to the government.
• May hosts sleepover Cabinet meeting to agree on plans for leaving the EU, including those not acceptable to the EU?
• The EU knows the UK is leaving but not how.
• The government knows the UK is leaving but not how.
• The government is pretending it has a ”no deal” ace up its sleeve.
• Brussels knows the ace is a suicide bomb.
• The government knows it´s a suicide bomb but isn´t telling anybody.

How will this end? Haven´t a clue but it´s better than anything on TV. 

Like when the French bellboy in the Peter Sellers film wishes the newly weds: ” a great `a penis”  Time to say, I beg your pardon what was it you really meant? 

#PeoplesVote

 

Almost two years since the referendum and we are no further down the road than ”Brexit means Brexit”, meaning nobody has a clue what Brexit will turn out to be. That fact in itself together with the ever increasing warnings of economic woe is slowly beginning to get to people, making them wonder if their no to the EU was such a good idea.  Although the government and Labour are still dithering around their own Brexit supporting standpoints there is growing political pressure to subject whatever deal Theresa May comes up with to a vote, including an option to stay in the EU. 

As I mentioned in October, Theresa May is on a mission impossible and there really is no way out for her other than one of a limited number of more or less dramatic moves.  It is said pride comes before a fall and the Prime Minister is the victim of her own arrogance from the invoking of Article 50 to her nonsensical ”Brexit means Brexit, Strong and Stable, Citizens of Nowhere, No Deal is better than a Bad Deal” etc. etc.  Lack of competence or foresight, you choose?  Theresa May was of the persuasion that forceful yet meaningless sound bites, showing she was getting behind it, was all that was needed to deliver the prize. 

At the outset as a new Prime Minister this advisory referendum gave her plenty of scope from on the one hand viewing the result as a voice for a cliff edge departure to on the other hand negotiating the best possible deal as a non-member of the EU and offering transparency on all the strings attached. A complement to this pragmatic approach would have been an escape-hatch in the form of a vote in Parliament including a Remain option should any of the Brexit optains fail to gain enough political support. 

This in fact is where we are today with the exception of the escape-hatch in the form of a parliamentary Remain option. The wheels have come off the Tory Brexit bus and for good measure it appears the engine has seized too. Theresa May is still behind the wheel making engine noises and Jeremy Corbyn is still collecting fares but it is nothing if not embarassing.

Apparently Labour are not doing well in the polls and despite all the talk of Tory austerity who needs an opposition that verbally opposes austerity yet actually supports future Brexit austerity?  Under Jeremy Corbyn Labour is running a sideshow and until it changes its Brexit stance the future of Britain will be in the hands of the Tories.

Theresa May´s options?

1. Doing nothing and letting time slip into a ”no deal crashing out” scenario which would not require Labour support only tacit acceptance.
2. A U-turn on a red line or two and negotiating a BINO, Brexit in name only.
3. Calling another election as all other options with existing red lines are unattainable might be seen as a way out but the question has to be asked. On what platform?

 

It seems to me that the Brexit can that Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have taken turns in kicking down the road has run out of road to kick down.  The next few months will be decisive in defining Theresa May´s Brexit means Brexit. If you have never had much time for that expression and are seriously upset at whatever prospects are in store for you or the country, depending on the undefined will of the people in combination with the incompetent handling of negotiations and the whole damn Brexit issue, then you might be advised to make use of the local elections come 3rd May. Being a more than 15 year absent disenfranchised Brit I would like to urge all EU nationals living in Britain to exercise their right and vote in the country I am now barred from doing so. Now it is not my place to tell anybody who or what to vote for but if you are anti-Brexit and pro-EU here is a little story that might help.

As a teenager in the 60´s we had a retired greyhound whose racing name was Loud Laughter, possibly because whenever she was pleased with something she would bare her teeth with a snuffle, making it look and sound as if she was laughing. We called her Saucy for short and although she once bit me on the nose (another story) I otherwise only have fond memories of our time together. Now Saucy and I would take long walks past the cricket field in Horsham up to Denne Hill  where I would let her loose. Now I had no record of her racing history and despite doubting that she was ever a racing star she ran a lot faster than I ever could. Once on Denne Hill her favourite pastime was chasing rabbits. Now you may think it awful of me to have allowed such a thing considering the more than bloody consequences should she have succeeded in catching her prey. The thing is I was very much aware that she would never catch a rabbit not because she couldn´t run fast enough which she could but solely because she had no focus. It almost seemed to me as if the rabbits were just a tiny bit smarter than dear old Saucy. She would be chasing one rabbit and getting closer when suddenly, catching sight of another rabbit on her right or  left, she would begin to chase that rabbit instead. This procedure would be repeated until all the rabbits had disappeared into their burrows.

The moral of this story is if you are anti-Brexit keep your focus.

No chasing on the right or left. Labour and Conservative are luring you away from your goal.

Catch the rabbit in the middle = ABTV. That rabbit will get us a final say.

(ABTV = Anti-Brexit Tactical Voting)

Today marks the day when in one year from now the United Kingdom will be leaving the EU. There is a lot of talk about getting our country back, taking back control of our borders, sovereignty, no freedom of movement, control of our money, blue passports, becoming a global nation, free trading with the world etc, etc. These arguments together with the soundbites Brexit means Brexit, Strong and Stable, Deep and Special Relationship are not unlike any sort of political rhetoric before an election. Simple, easy to understand as they have little factual content and are very much appealing, more to the emotion than anything else.

Jacob Reese Mogg in his usual polite, excremental manner puts a finer point to it. He calls Remainers cave dwellers. Being on the side of Brexit he is not only rude but also biased. In essence what he is saying is that Remainers did not understand what they were voting for.  In the case of Brexit it has become painfully obvious that that is exactly what has happened and unfortunately for JRM it is Leavers who did not know what they were voting for.

People who voted Remain, for whatever reason, voted for a status quo. In fact knowledgable or no they understood exactly what they were voting for. Saying yes to leaving the EU on the other hand was putting your trust in a variety of arguments and the Brexiters/politicians offering those arguments. There is a lot of talk about lying on both sides. Maybe so but to me it´s more about faith than truth. I wouldn´t call a man who believes in God a liar.  So I think we can forget the mud slinging and accept that Remainers understood what they were voting for and Leavers didn´t.  Now I would expect a Brexiter to pop up and say, ” yes, we knew exactly what we were voting for, leaving the EU”

Ok. Now we are back at the simple political rhetoric stage. We still do not know what leaving the EU means.  Brexit means Brexit is as clear as pizza means pizza although there is some agreement on avoiding the hot sauce.

So if you knew what you were voting for and it was a blue passport then congratulations and Happy Easter.

Leadership as defined by the Business Dictionary

• The individuals who are leaders in an organization, regarded collectively.
• The activity of leading a group of people or an organization or the ability to do this.

Leadership involves:

1. Establishing a clear vision.
2. Sharing that vision with others so that they will follow willingly.
3. Providing the information, knowledge and methods to realize that vision.
4. Coordinating and balancing the conflicting interests of all members and stakeholders.

A leader steps up in times of crisis and is able to think and act creatively in difficult situations.

I found the above definition of leadership on the internet and although there is obviously a ”more detail” link to be pressed this rather sums up the essence of what is required to lead any group, formal or informal. This advice is as pertinent to parents with children unruly or otherwise as it is to leaders in business, with politicians being no exception. The raison d’être differs considerably as do the preconditions set for each leading individual and although the definition of well-being may vary from organization to organization it serves well as a common denominator be it for a family, a club, a business, a hospital or even a country. Ignoring the basics of leadership puts this well-being at risk.

With Britain in its present state there are certainly a good many people asking themselves how are we going to get out of this mess. Unfortunately for the country the people who led the UK into this are the very same people now trying to unravel it. Having bungled the first point on the above list, ignored points 2, 3 and 4 they are now at the crisis bit, bickering amongst themselves and incapable of facing the issues on hand. ”The will of the people” a mantra nowadays being muttered with much the same reverence as the Lord´s Prayer is the vision that according to them must under all circumstances be adhered to. Even if I find that argument a little weak as the referendum was advisory the ”will of the people” ought to have been seen as a precondition for establishing a vision being open ended enough for some sensible solutions. The stage was set for a leader to step up and take control; a Brexit sound bite Prime Minister Theresa May has not and is not living up to. She took the easy way out. She let the ”will of the people” become the vision, full well knowing it to be incomplete as such. At this moment she usurped the leave vote and slammed the door shut on her chance of ever becoming anything other than a political parenthesis.

Theresa May´s nonsensical ”Brexit means Brexit” and invoking of article 50 was a slap in the face of her country and her party. Instead of some careful reflection on what people were expecting by voting leave and research on how that compared to the attainable options and then carefully moving on to point 2 she shoved ”strong and stable” and ”Brexit means Brexit” down everybody´s throat resulting in the absolute opposite to gathering willing followers. This was underlined by her foolishly calling and then losing an election. Now that ”strong and stable” had become ”weak and wobbly” and the country´s less than willing followers into the Brexit unknown were voicing concern as to the negative effects of leaving the EU, point 3 on the list was definitely not on. By rapidly invoking article 50 she exposed her weakness as a leader with little regard and or ability for point 4.

Together with many other people who feel the Uk´s future lies with the EU I was of course disappointed with the result but in all seriousness it is the people who voted leave that should also be up in arms. People who voted remain realize that their lives will change. They lost. People who voted leave were lied to on a number of issues concerning the benefits of Brexit and bearing in mind the great number of options still open have not yet won anything other than an unachievable slogan the ”will of the people. ” Remain may have lost the referendum but leave have lost their Brexit due to political incompetence and arrogance. When Brexit is finally negotiated only a fraction of these leave voters will have received what they voted for. The question therefore is and should be can the rest of us go along with the happy few? The question has to be put.

A final say is the only decent and democratic thing to do.

A suitable film title for the comedy of errors that is being acted out in the UK with a bemused world watching.  Despite avidly gathering  as much information as I can on Brexit I frustratingly find myself arriving at the same conclusion as Theresa May, ”Brexit means Brexit.” For a short period the Prime Minister managed to successfully convince me and a few others I imagine that she actually was strong and stable and knew what she was doing, until it dawned on me that when she said ”Brexit means Brexit” she had as much idea of what it meant as most of us did, that is not a clue. Well, to be honest, politicians not always revealing their intentions or plans is nothing I normally lose sleep over, more like irritated that sound bites are considered being material enough for voters like me, read stupid, to gung ho along. Churchill said most of that in, you know, ”fooling all the people…,” although I am beginning to believe that Theresa May either didn’t understand what he was saying or she didn’t read to the end, ”….you can´t fool all the people all of the time.” The view can can be taken though that she isn´t  attempting to fool anybody. ”Brexit means Brexit” just about covers everything on the subject and not a lie if you haven´t a clue what it means. The Daily Telegraph would you believe has twigged on, calling the government  clueless and other rather unpleasant epithets. The Independent thinks it´s a done deal where EU has just about told the UK not only what it can get but what the EU thinks it should have, other than possibly Remain.  Some of the issues like the cash seem to have been resolved, the Irish conundrum has been fudged and the earlier red lines set out are not showing up in the dark hours of Winter but they have not gone away.  A ”No Deal” crash continues to have a number of supporters and I am not referring to the xenophobic Brexit Taliban and their ”it´s my cuntry innit?” but to the hard line Brexiters, not only the Tory right, who realise that the negative effects for their country may have some positive effects for themselves. The mood of the public however is changing, not fast enough or dramatically enough for any foot shifting but in the light of the ever increasing negative effects of Brexit making everyone rather nervous. I see no immediate way out of this. We are not witnessing a process changing the political direction of a country after a vote in parliament, we are witnessing damage control after a referendum lost to people addressing their grievances rather than their needs. There is no plan, not for these people not for any of us. HMS United Kingdom is floundering in heavy seas with a sea-sick Captain lashed to the wheel, her officers bickering among themselves on the bridge and Jeremy, the stoker in the boiler room shovelling coal for all he´s worth.

The general consensus is however that 2018 will actually reveal to us what ”Brexit means Brexit” really means. In my opinion there is no acceptable in-between or ”Soft Brexit” meaning all rule taker but no rule maker which is why I prefer to call it a ”Pretend Brexit”  It will therefore be one of 3 things:

• No Deal aka Hard Over the Cliff Brexit on Friday 29th March 2019.
• Remain
• A transition period with a Pretend Brexit or Hard Brexit in view that will most likely run out in a Remain.

But for now Brexit means Brexit.

Although I am not particularly fond of this expression I find myself quite happy to use it as it sort of sums up my feelings on where we are at the moment on Brexit. Christmas just happened along and suffices as a pleasant decoration to a pretty grim situation. Theresa May and apparently Michel Barnier et al. are all happy that Phase 2 of the negotiations has now been given the go ahead and is planned to start in March 2018. Right so everybody´s happy? Au contraire mon ami!  To be quite honest I do not think anybody is that happy, it´s more a case of how unhappy everybody is. Ranging from foaming at the mouth angry, to a gentle it could be worse attitude.

1. Extreme Brexiters: Starting at the howling end I think we will find our extreme Brexiters. A mixed bunch of rich and or influential people longing for the day when the EU will no longer be in a position to mix in their affairs. They call it taking back control and just like the rosy future that is promised, taking back control does in no way include the many. The extreme Brexiters are all very upset that a transition period where the UK becomes a rule taker instead of a rule maker might have some rather nasty side effects. Not to mention the fact that a transition period is by definition time allowed for adjustment and as such if need be open for extension and a possible reversing of Brexit. The rosy future might also be exposed during that transition period as being rosy alone for rich Brexiters.
2. Hard Line Brexiter: The ordinary hard line Brexiter is just as unhappy as true to form he just can´t understand. Leave and tell the EU to sod off.
3. Ordinary Leaver: Next we have the common or garden Leaver who is now extremely unhappy that what he thought he voted for turned out to be a number of options that nobody seems to be able to agree upon. The whole thing exarcerbated by Project Fear warnings now turning into reality.
4. Bregretters: Honest version of 3.
5. Got over it Remainer: Prepared to compromise and stay in Customs Union and Single Market. Not happy with the way things are going and fearing that the whole mess could end up in a Hard Brexit.
6. Hard Remainer: Definitely not happy about the Referendum itself i.e. the exclusions of certain groups, the metamorphosis from advisory to ”will of the people” that must be respected despite an embarrassingly slight majority contra normal democratic procedure. Angry at politicians both Labour and Tories playing the party game and not as Remainers see it putting their country first.
7. The Tories: Fighting like ferrets in a sack.
8. Labour: Large majority of Labour voters (young) favour staying in the EU. Corbyn (old) does not. A quieter version of 7.
9. The EU: Wondering where all this will end like watching a dear friend once an influential partner succumb to a sickness that Europe thought it had vaccinated out of existence.
10. Theresa May: This Prime Minister´s present situation and the quality of her leadership remind me of a very silly joke from my younger days: A man is walking down the street and spots a pile of dog shit on the pavement. He is about to go past it yet hesitates, ”it looks like dog shit,” he says then bends down putting his nose closer, ”it smells like dog shit,” then after poking his finger into it and discovering that it tasted like dog shit happily exclaiming, ”I´m glad I didn’t step in it.”

Happy New Year everyone and don´t forget to #FBPE

 

Månader har förflutit och Torypartiets flitigt använda stridsrop ”stark och stabil” skulle anses vara föga passande som varumärke för den Brittiska regeringens förhandlingsinsatser den senaste tiden. Om förhandling nu skulle vara ett passande uttryck för det som med sina många kovändningar blir mer förvirrande för varje dag. Premiärminister Theresa Mays uttalade strävan efter en ”djup och speciell” relation till EU ter sig allt mer svårfångad. De övriga 27 EU länderna har via sin chefsförhandlare Michel Barnier ställt tre villkor eller röda linjer: den så kallade skilsmässoräkningen, medborgarrättigheterna och gränsen mellan Nordirland och den Irländska Republiken. Dessa tre röda linjer innehåller inga konkreta krav annat än att dessa frågor måste lösas på ett tillfredställande sätt innan förhandlingarna om framtida handelsavtal kommer att påbörjas. Denna inställning har lett till en utdragen process och tiden rinner iväg efter att den brittiska regeringen åberopade utträdesartikel 50 och därmed, tillsynes helt oförberett, startade det tvååriga stoppuret till Brexitdatumet.
Vare sig det handlar om barnens läggtider eller Brexit finns det några viktiga utgångspunkter vid förhandling. 1. Man bör veta vad man vill. 2. Man bör veta, förstå och hålla sig till sina begränsningar, läs röda linjer. 3. Man bör ha en beredskap för olika kompromisser. Det är just i dessa frågor hela den brittiska regeringens problem ligger och roten till allt detta kan lätt spåras till en tämligen meningslös fråga i folkomröstningen för ett år sedan. Frågan ”Bör United Kingdom förbli medlem av den Europeiska Unionen eller lämna den Europeiska Unionen?” var tydlig. Lika tydligt skulle ett svar ”stanna i EU” ha varit. Svaret ”lämna EU” har däremot orsakat kaos och de konservativa Tories en del huvudvärk. Mycket tyder på att detta svar var oväntat.
Om jag övervägde att säga upp mitt medlemskap i en förening eller golfklubb skulle jag inte vara ensam om att förstå konsekvenserna av detta som tex. att inte längre behöva betala medlemsavgiften. Krav på att fortsättningsvis åtnjuta klubbens faciliteter eller spela på banan skulle mötas med förvåning om inte hån. Icke så med Brexit. Plötsligt betyder ”lämna” så många olika saker och stor vikt fästes vid att få en bra överenskommelse som säkrar så många förmåner som möjligt. Osökt dyker frågan upp varför man överhuvudtaget lämnar när nu folkomröstningen var rådgivande och inte bindande.
Det börjar dock klarna att en bra överenskommelse för Storbrittanien som icke medlem men med tillgång till den gemensamma marknaden m.m skulle kräva eftergifter i frågor som bl.a fri rörlighet för medborgare. Detta blir möjligen som att blanda vatten i sin whisky och sedan hävda att man inte längre dricker alkohol. Ett låtsas Brexit med andra ord; ett scenario där Storbrittanien abdikerar från den politiska scenen i fråga om medlemskap och därmed förlorar möjligheten att påverka EU lagstiftningen. Detta riskerar att resultera i ett EU med större inflytande över Storbritannien än innan Brexit.
Förståeligt nog är inte detta en överenskommelse som inbitna EU motståndare, Brexiters som de kallas på hemmaplan, skulle vara särskilt glada över. Det brittiska näringslivet skulle möjligtvis finna detta acceptabelt under en övergångsperiod men utöver det är det svårt att se denna lösning som en hållbar framtid för landet. Som bäst skulle en sådan överenskommelse vara om den kopplades till överläggningar rörande tiden efter Brexit. Åter till EU:s röda linjer som tack vare ett hastigt utlösande av artikel 50 har blivit ett ”Moment 22”. Samtliga tre röda linjer är i sitt innersta väsen kopplade till den omtalade ”speciella och djupa relationen” och även om dessa är öppna frågor kan de näppeligen lösas utan att avslöja vilken status Storbrittanien kommer att ha efter Brexit.
Efter det att Theresa May utlöste ett extra val 2017 har det nordirländska partiet DUP en vågmästarroll i parlamentet sedan Torypartiet förlorade sin majoritet. Sannolikheten att Storbrittaniens chefsförhandlare David Davis eller Theresa May hittar en lösning som blidkar EU, högerfalangen i Torypartiet och inte minst DUP, är närmast obefintlig. I detta scenario tornar två, tidigare nästan otänkbara, alternativ upp. Båda två skulle kunna ses, åtminstone kortsiktigt, som snabba lösningar.
En ”no deal” eller ingen överenskommelse överhuvudtaget som även beskrivs som att Storbrittanien kraschar ut ur EU är för många det underförstådda svaret som folkomröstningen gav. Detta må vara hänt men vid en analys av vilken information detta svar baserades på, väljarnas föreställningar om vad ”lämna EU” betyder samt de närmast katastrofliknande ekonomiska och politiska konsekvenserna finns det lite som talar för att detta skulle vara ”folkets vilja”. Om denna ”no deal” någon gång hade varit ett alternativ skulle Theresa May inte redan har vacklat i en del frågor som tex. skilsmässoräkningen och den europeiska domstolens överhöghet på vissa områden.
Numera pekar många saker på att en ”no Brexit” skulle kunna vara en möjlighet både juridiskt och politiskt. EU lämnar dörren öppen under tiden allt högljuddare protester hörs om Brexits negativa effekter. Ironiskt nog ju mer skada den brittiska ekonomin lider innan utträdesdatumet i mars 2019, desto större sannolikhet att Brexit avbryts men med mindre politisk skada när allmänheten inser innebördan av de två ovannämnda alternativen. Att återkalla artikel 50 skulle befria Storbrittanien från Brexitmardrömmen som folkomröstningen försatte landet i men det vore förhastat att tala om en snabb lösning. Opinionen i landet är splittrad och även med en mera insiktsfull förståelse av landets relation till EU skulle förbittringen och känslan av att någon hade skjutit nationalikonen, lejonet och den mytologiska enhörningen, finnas kvar hos många. Theresa May skulle inte längre vara av intresse, i bästa fall någon man tycker synd om. Det konservativa Torypartiet, befläckat av bl.a utrikesminister Boris Johnsons, snällt uttryckt, irrationella beteende och den katastrofala hanteringen av hela Brexit processen, skulle behöva en omdaning. Ett ”no Brexit” skulle bespara Storbritannien den ekonomiska skärseld som många varnar för. Behovet av reformer inom ekonomi och utbildning för att förbättra levnadsvillkoren för många människor kvarstår.
Oppositionen i form av Jeremy Corbyns Labourparti avvaktar och med medvind i opinionssiffrorna lovar att de minsann skulle lyckas att förhandla fram ”en Brexit för de många inte de få.” Det är dock många som inte förstår hur det ska gå till.